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New Single Touch payroll data reveals 56,000 workers formerly on JobKeeper have lost their jobs, up from 40,000 over the last two weeks.
JobKeeper’s expiry has cost 56,000 jobs to date: Treasury
01 June 2021
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8 minute read
Treasury secretary Steven Kennedy told Senate estimates on Tuesday morning that 56,000 workers whose jobs were previously sustained by JobKeeper are now unemployed.
“These data suggested that up to 40,000 former JobKeeper workers lost employment in the first two weeks following the end of JobKeeper,” Dr Kennedy said. “We now have an extra two weeks of data and across the four weeks, around 56,000 former JobKeeper workers lost employment.
“In terms of the net labour market impact, it’s worth remembering that around 400,000 people move into and out of employment in a normal month and we would expect many of those who lost employment at the end of JobKeeper to regain employment in coming weeks.”
The Treasury’s latest figures follow comments made by Dr Kennedy in an address to an Australian Business Economists’ lunch in May, where he revealed that between 16,000 and 40,000 workers on JobKeeper had lost employment after the $90 billion wage subsidy program ended on 28 March.
The figures, drawn from estimates from Single Touch Payroll microdata for the fortnight ended 11 April, were well below the anticipated 100,000 to 150,000 job losses predicted by the Treasury in March.
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia in March also predicted up to 110,000 job losses through the end of JobKeeper.
Speaking to Senate estimates on Tuesday, Dr Kennedy doubled down on his department’s federal budget unemployment forecast of a fall to 5 per cent by June 2022, and 4.5 per cent in 2023–24.
“Early indicators suggest that, while there have been some job losses associated with the end of the program and there may be more in the future,” Dr Kennedy said, “the strength of the broader labour market has meant that many of these individuals are finding jobs.”
The latest round of employment data released late last month showed the unemployment rate record a fall of 0.2 of a percentage point for April, as JobKeeper’s expiry was described by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) as having no “discernible impact” on employment between March and April.
“The unemployment rate is now 0.2 [of a percentage point], or 33,000 people, above the start of the pandemic,” said Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics. “Importantly, it’s 2.0 percentage points below its peak in July 2020, when it was 7.4 per cent.
“We have not seen large changes in the indicators that would suggest a clear JobKeeper impact, such as an increase in people working reduced or zero hours for economic reasons or because they were leaving their job.
“We also haven’t seen large net flows out of employment across many population groups.”
Speaking from Hobart on the day April employment data was released, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said the new figures show that the Morrison government’s economic plan is working.
“Beating market expectations, today unemployment fell to 5.5 per cent,” Mr Frydenberg said.
“This is the seventh consecutive month where unemployment has fallen. Underemployment has fallen to its lowest level in seven years, and we have seen youth unemployment fall to its lowest level in 12 years.”
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- ABS internally can link an employee who received a Jobkeeper payments at some stage to a termination date in the STP data for this analysis. Under STP v2 contractors will be included but not yet.
As it is individual data you won't get the ABN data due to privacy.
And yes the ABS STP Data is accurate.
They also frequently do analysis of employees who have more than one job if you look at their workforce data sets.1 - So that's why they really wanted STP, cheap source of employment data. And we are the mugs who have to do the legwork.1
- and to ensure that employers actually paid the superannuation for employees.
Also the year end process with STP is lot quicker and a lot less hassle than by paper
STO is no different to any other admin improvement implemented by Govt.
Like when ATO insisted that all tax returns by lodged electronically,
ATO basically outsources their data entry function.
But it is vast improvement over manual lodgements that used to be lost by ATO with monotonous regularity.
And anyway. If STP provide accurate and quick data, then I say good on it.0
- Manipulated numbers do not mean much. The Single Touch Payroll numbers are interesting and I would love to have these available for more scrutiny. Like how many people have 2 or 3 jobs as casual or part time. I wonder about the contractors? Could the ATO provide ABN data?1
- Agree,
It would be very interesting to see how many people having multiple employment
to revew the myth of full employment with some facts of some peoples lives.
Wouldnt be hard to interogate the dataset to find out ho many people worked multiple jobs.1
- Perhaps we need to be talking about how many of those small business employers who let the staff go, will be out of business by Christmas. There will be far more carnage yet, if the Federal and State Governments allow that to happen.1
- This data is likely to not be accurate. Many employees would have just taken related parties of payroll. Treasury is out of touch.1
